America Can Dominate Global Hydrogen By Leveraging Natural Gas
The race to decarbonize the global economy hasn’t ended yet, although it seems on somewhat shaky ground these days. Assuming the race continues, hydrogen has emerged as one of the linchpins for progress — a versatile, low-carbon fuel poised to transform industries from steelmaking to shipping.
Not surprisingly, natural gas, increasingly the workhorse of today’s energy system, is the key to unlocking America’s leadership in the hydrogen sector. Far from being a relic of the fossil fuel past, natural gas—abundant, affordable, and geopolitically secure in the United States—offers a pragmatic means of seizing global leadership in the hydrogen sector. By leveraging it smartly, the U.S. can dominate the global hydrogen market, bolster its energy security, and meet rising international demand.
Natural Gas: The Backbone of Hydrogen Today
Here are some stubborn facts:
- Over 95% of the world’s hydrogen is produced through steam methane reforming (SMR), a process that uses natural gas to generate hydrogen by splitting methane and water molecules.
- This “blue” hydrogen is not a futuristic fantasy—it’s the reality powering 10 million metric tons of hydrogen annually in the U.S. alone, making America the world’s second-largest producer. This isn’t green hydrogen from electrolysis or experimental tech; it’s a proven, scalable method rooted in a resource the U.S. has in spades.
- Natural gas in the U.S. isn’t just plentiful—it’s cheap and reliable. Decades of innovation in shale extraction have turned the country into an energy superpower, with reserves that dwarf those of all but a handful of competitors.
- Unlike nations reliant on volatile global supply chains, the U.S. controls its own feedstock, free from the geopolitical baggage that plagues oil or rare-earth minerals.
- This abundance positions natural gas as the strategic cornerstone for scaling hydrogen production without betting the farm on unproven alternatives.
This is where it gets really interesting: By pairing SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS), we can produce hydrogen from natural gas while slashing emissions. This isn’t a distant dream—projects like ExxonMobil’s Baytown facility in Texas are already in motion. With plans to produce 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen daily and capture 10 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, Baytown could become the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen plant. It’s a blueprint for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like manufacturing and heavy transport, where electrification alone won’t cut it. And it’s ready now, not decades in the future.
As with every other aspect of today’s global energy picture, policy support is critical to this vision. The 45V tax credit, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, incentivizes clean hydrogen production by offsetting costs for projects like Baytown. Exxon CEO Darren Woods has made clear that, without 45V locked in, the facility won’t move forward. This isn’t corporate posturing—it’s simple economics. Hydrogen can also drive demand for natural gas, creating a virtuous cycle that boosts production while advancing decarbonization.
America’s Edge in the Hydrogen Game
The U.S. isn’t starting from scratch. Beyond its natural gas advantage, America already enjoys hydrogen infrastructure that’s the envy of the world. One little known fact is that more than 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines already crisscross the Gulf Coast, a legacy of decades of industrial use. More than just pipes in the ground—this network represents a head start on scaling up distribution. Add to that an unmatched industrial base, a skilled energy workforce honed by decades in oil and gas, and expertise in CO₂ management from enhanced oil recovery and CCS projects. The U.S. doesn’t need to reinvent this wheel; it’s already rolling and has been in motion for years.
Compare that to the competition. China, the UAE, and Australia are gunning for hydrogen export dominance, but they face big hurdles. China’s coal-heavy energy mix and paucity of domestic natural gas production undercuts its low-carbon credentials and ability to bring blue hydrogen to scale.
The UAE leans on oil and gas but lacks the U.S.’s pipeline network and industrial depth. Australia has vast renewable potential for green hydrogen, but its remoteness and reliance on untested electrolysis at scale leave gaps. The U.S., with its natural gas-driven blue hydrogen, can move faster and cheaper, leveraging existing systems while others build from the ground up.
The Global Prize In The Hydrogen Sweepstakes
The stakes are global. Europe, Japan, and South Korea have their eyes on hydrogen to meet net-zero goals, projecting imports of over 50 million metric tons annually by 2050. These aren’t small markets—they’re economic powerhouses who are incentivizing the import of reliable, low-carbon energy.
These markets are also picky: They want transparency and carbon intensity data, not just promises. U.S. producers, with some of the world’s cleanest natural gas operations – thanks to methane leak reductions and rigorous standards – can deliver both the volume and the credibility these buyers’ demand.
This isn’t just about climate – it’s about commerce and trade. Hydrogen could rival liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a future export juggernaut. The U.S. transformed global energy markets by becoming the top LNG exporter in under a decade; hydrogen offers a similar shot at dominance.
But windows like these have a habit of closing. China’s state-driven investments, the UAE’s oil wealth, and Australia’s green ambitions are accelerating. If the U.S. drags its feet on policy like 45V or on permitting for pipelines and plants, it risks ceding an enormous market to international rivals.
The Path Forward For Hydrogen Dominance
The play for America to be the leader in this expanding industry is clear: First, secure the 45V tax credit and streamline permitting. Projects like Baytown need certainty, not red tape.
Second, double down on CCS innovation. Blue hydrogen’s edge depends on capturing CO₂ cost-effectively; thus, every dollar shaved off strengthens America’s hand.
Third, expand the Gulf Coast pipeline network and link it to industrial hubs nationwide. Infrastructure isn’t sexy, but it’s the backbone of scale.
Finally, market the hell out of U.S. hydrogen abroad, just as America did with its LNG exports. Diplomats and trade reps should be pitching American blue hydrogen as the gold standard, because that’s what it is: reliable, transparent, responsibly produced, and ready today, not in decades.
Critics will argue this locks the U.S. into fossil fuels. They’re half right but miss the point. Natural gas isn’t the endgame – it’s the on-ramp to establishing a dominant position in the global market. Green hydrogen from renewables may well dominate in 30 years, but we don’t have 30 years to wait. Blue hydrogen slashes emissions now, buys time for electrolysis to mature, and keeps the U.S. in the driver’s seat. It’s not ideology; it’s pragmatism, one that is completely consistent with President Trump’s American Energy Dominance agenda.
The Bottom Line for Hydrogen
The hydrogen economy is coming, and natural gas is America’s ticket to lead it. With abundant resources, existing infrastructure, and a knack for energy innovation, the U.S. can turn a domestic strength into a global win. Baytown isn’t just a plant—it’s a signal: America’s ready to play big. But leadership isn’t guaranteed. Like every other aspect of the rapidly evolving energy mix, it demands coordinated action on policy, investment, and vision. The world’s watching, and the U.S. has everything it needs to deliver.
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