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The Federal Reserve has charted a course for two more interest rate reductions in 2024 after it slashed rates by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its September meeting on Wednesday.
The rate reduction marks the first time rates have been lowered since 2020.
The central bank in a statement noted that inflation has made “further progress” toward its 2% goal but remains “somewhat elevated” as economic activity has expanded at a solid pace.
The Fed said,
The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,
All but one of the 12 Fed voters supported the 50 basis point cut, with Governor Michelle Bowman preferring a quarter-point reduction.
Bowman is the first Fed governor to vote against an interest rate decision since 2005.
Policymakers see the fed funds rate coming down to 4.4% in 2024, compared to its June projection of 5.1%.
Its “dot plot,” which outlines officials’ interest rate expectations for the coming months, showed 17 see further easing in 2024 while two see rates held steady.
The majority see the fed funds rate coming down to 3.4% in 2025, which suggests four rate cuts next year.
The fed funds rate is seen hitting 2.9% in 2026, implying another two cuts.
A ‘precautionary move’
The Fed aims to support a soft landing for the US economy, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks highlighted.
she noted,
The Fed statement was illuminating because even though the Fed made a large interest rate cut, the first line of the FOMC statement read ‘Recent indicators suggest that the US economy has continued to expand at a solid pace,
“This supports the view that the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps as a precautionary move, to protect the US economy from a potential future recession.”
She also noted the Fed’s shift away from data-watching.
she said,
Fed’s statement said that future rate decisions will depend on ‘incoming information for the economic outlook’, thus, the Fed has moved beyond data dependency, and the economic outlook is key for the future direction of US interest rates,
“[Fed chair] Jerome Powell said that he would not pre-commit to rate cuts in advance, and the FOMC would make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.”
While Brooks noted that the market was right and economists were wrong on today’s decision, markets are expecting too many rate cuts from the Fed this year. The fed expects rates to fall to 4.4% while the market expects 4%.
she said,
Thus, the market could recalibrate interest rate expectations higher for year-end. If this happens, then this meeting could be bearish for bonds,
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