Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts – IDTechEX.
Fuel cell vehicle deployment, technology and granular forecasts for fuel cell passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, and city buses. Unit sales, fuel cell MW demand, GWh battery demand and market size.
IDTechEx’s report “Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts” explores the market for on-road fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) including cars, light commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, and buses. The report covers the market drivers, barriers, players, technology, models, benchmarking, and forecasts adoption for the next 20 years for unit sales, fuel cell demand, battery demand, and market value.
In response to the threat posed by climate change and poor urban air quality many countries are tightening emissions regulation to reduce the impact from on-road transportation. This legislation is forcing OEMs away from traditional combustion engines and toward zero emission powertrains. The two key technologies to achieve this are battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and FCEVs.
Whilst the market for pure battery-electric vehicles (BEV) is beginning to take-off in many transport segments, the energy density limits of lithium-ion batteries means that the range of battery electric vehicles is restricted by both the maximum weight of batteries that can be carried by a vehicle and the available space for batteries within that vehicle. Fuel cell technologies offer automakers an avenue to greater vehicle range, whilst still delivering the crucial reduction in on-road exhaust emissions.
A further significant benefit of fuel cell systems is that the refueling of hydrogen tanks is similar to refueling conventional combustion engine vehicles (a few minutes) and is considerably faster than comparatively slow electric charging, which can take several hours. The range and refueling advantage of FCEV could be particularly critical for the viability of zero-emission heavy-duty truck and bus operations, where there is a high daily range requirement, long operating hours, and the need for operational flexibility.
Fuel Cell Passenger Cars
Progress in the passenger car market for fuel cells has largely been driven by Toyota and Hyundai, following the exit of Honda’s Clarity in 2021. Many other major OEMs have invested significant in the technology over the past 30 years including Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW. Toyota and Hyundai accounted for the vast majority of global FC car sales in 2021 and 2022, with around 15,000 sales in each year.
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