Germany – Without a combination of measures, the hydrogen ramp-up risks stagnation.
Essen, February 11, 2026 – Today at E-World, the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), together with Capgemini, published a study on the current risk landscape for the hydrogen rollout. The study shows that the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy is not currently failing due to a lack of interest from companies. A whole range of regulatory, economic, and infrastructural risks along the entire value chain are hindering the development. The study clarifies these investment barriers and demonstrates that policymakers must take concrete action.
All stages of the hydrogen value chain – from production and transport to storage and use – are equally affected by investment barriers and risks, according to the findings of the study on the current risk landscape for the hydrogen rollout. Isolated individual measures are insufficient to trigger investments or enable reliable Final Investment Decisions (FIDs). Only a consistently integrated package of measures can effectively reduce the key risks and enable the development of a market that has not previously existed. The proposed instruments are explicitly designed as temporary, ramp-up measures and not as permanent market mechanisms. However, it is clear that they must work together and support the development of the value chain at all stages.
The study identifies several key levers for mitigating the stringent requirements of the Delegated Act on RFNBOs, which sets out the standards for renewable hydrogen production, in order to alleviate the significant and investment-inhibiting cost factors. For example, it is counterproductive to require the construction of entirely new wind farms to produce hydrogen recognized as renewable. From a systemic perspective, it makes more sense to leverage synergies within the energy system rather than constructing new production facilities exclusively for hydrogen production. Furthermore, government-backed Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are necessary during the ramp-up phase to close the existing cost gap between renewable or low-carbon hydrogen and fossil-based alternatives. Additional government guarantees could help keep these costs under control. Complementing this, the establishment of binding lead markets is needed to generate reliable demand and increase investment security.
Dr. Kirsten Westphal, member of the executive board at BDEW, explains:
The study shows that policymakers must now aim to enable the development of complete value chains.
”We need visible large-scale projects to demonstrate the feasibility and scalability of hydrogen projects. The current hurdles are too high, and the risks for companies are almost unbearable at the outset. An effective lever is needed for the development and ramp-up phase of hydrogen. This requires a smart mix of instruments that effectively facilitates investment along the entire value chain,”
Torben Schuster, Head of Energy Transition & Utilities at Capgemini Invent, adds:
The willingness to invest in Germany is clearly there. What’s lacking is predictability and the necessary regulatory framework.
”The study goes beyond simply listing risks; it precisely describes the system of underlying conditions. By assigning these risks to their respective drivers and assessing what market participants can actually influence, we demonstrate why many projects don’t reach the final investment decision (FID): The accumulated uncertainties simply exceed the companies’ risk-bearing capacity. Our prioritization also highlights where the greatest need for action lies: in financing, offtake agreements, and regulatory stability. If policymakers address these points, particularly regarding regulation, the hydrogen market can finally make the leap from ambitious goals to actionable investment decisions,”
Dr. Geert Tjarks, Managing Director of EWE HYDROGEN GmbH, says:
From a company perspective, the study clearly confirms what we see in practice: The hydrogen ramp-up is currently failing not due to a lack of interest or insufficient technology, but rather due to high risks and a lack of economic security along the entire value chain.
”While EWE is already investing specifically in integrated hydrogen projects, this is only possible in the early ramp-up phase through targeted federal and state funding. For a broad and sustainable market ramp-up, instruments are therefore needed that will enable investments in the long term even without project-specific individual funding,”
Tjarks contributed to the study by BDEW and Capgemini as a representative of industry. EWE thus brings the perspective of a company that is itself actively building an integrated hydrogen value chain, including through the multi-part IPCEI project “Clean Hydrogen Coastline.”
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Germany – Without a combination of measures, the hydrogen ramp-up risks stagnation., source
