Japan hydrogen gamble: What the world can learn from this high-stakes energy bet – WEF
- Japan has envisioned a ‘hydrogen society,’ integrating hydrogen across sectors from transportation and steel production to gas and electricity.
- Japan promotes hydrogen use in power generation, gas blending and passenger vehicles, but this expansive scope raises questions about strategic focus and feasibility.
- Japan’s journey highlights the need for tailored national strategies that align technology, market design and geopolitical realities.
As the global pursuit of clean energy accelerates, Japan has distinguished itself with a particularly bold commitment to hydrogen.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global hydrogen demand will reach around 130 million tons by 2030, a 45% increase from 2023, and further rise to 430 million tons by 2050. Since 2017, Japan has envisioned a ‘hydrogen society,’ integrating hydrogen across various sectors from transportation and steel production to gas and electricity. It was the first nation to publish a national hydrogen strategy, positioning hydrogen as a cornerstone for industrial competitiveness and energy security.
Nearly a decade later, Japan’s ambitious endeavour offers inspiration and caution. In an era increasingly influenced by geopolitics, technological disruption and pressing climate targets, Japan’s high-stakes experiment serves as a timely case study on the complexities of the energy transition.
From vision to realignment: Japan’s evolving hydrogen strategy
Japan’s 2017 Basic Hydrogen Strategy charted an ambitious course by calling for the eventual establishment of a decarbonized hydrogen supply chain. This optimism was underpinned by domestic innovations, such as Toyota’s fuel-cell technology and the launch of the world’s first liquefied hydrogen carrier, the Suiso Frontier.
By 2023, practical challenges necessitated a strategic recalibration. The revised strategy adopted a more pragmatic ‘Safety + 3E’ framework, emphasizing safety, energy security, economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. It outlined a JPY15 trillion ($100 billion) public-private investment plan and stressed international partnerships. Notably, the update signalled a shift towards green hydrogen aspirations, aligning with Japan’s 2050 carbon neutrality commitments and global trends. The IEA projects that low-emissions hydrogen, mostly green hydrogen, will account for about 98% of total consumption by 2050.
Despite these adjustments, Japan’s hydrogen vision remains comprehensive. Unlike common approaches that primarily reserve hydrogen for hard-to-abate sectors, like steel, shipping and aviation, Japan continues to promote hydrogen use in power generation, gas blending and passenger vehicles. This expansive scope raises questions about strategic focus and feasibility.
Energy insecurity: The underlying motivator
Japan’s profound energy insecurity is a driving force behind its hydrogen strategy. As a resource-poor island nation, it imported approximately 87% of its energy in 2023, with self-sufficiency declining sharply since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Public trust in nuclear power remains tenuous and renewable energy expansion is constrained by geographical limitations and grid integration challenges.
With the current renewable energy infrastructure, Japan would need to import renewable hydrogen, which presents a strategic paradox. While hydrogen is championed as a solution to energy security, its deployment could entrench new forms of dependency if Japan becomes reliant on hydrogen exporters.
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Japan hydrogen gamble: What the world can learn from this high-stakes energy bet – WEF, source
