UK – Gas Reliance Set to Last Longer on Slow Hydrogen Uptake.
The UK is expected to cut reliance on gas more slowly than previously thought, with hydrogen playing a smaller role in scenarios modeled by its grid operator.
While natural gas demand so far this year has been 15 terawatt-hours lower than in 2023, switching away from the fuel is expected to take longer in all pathways to net zero calculated by National Grid Plc’s Electricity System Operator, the body responsible for grid planning.
Its report, published Monday, identifies possible routes for the UK to reach net zero by 2050. Slashing emissions is one of the biggest challenges facing its new Labour government, which plans to have a clean grid by 2030. That will require changes in the realm of cars, home heating, insulation and power generation, all while keeping public spending and consumer bills under control.
National Grid expects to operate a carbon-free network at times from next year, the ESO’s director of strategy and policy Claire Dykta said. That won’t be possible throughout the year until the 2030s, she said, without being more specific on the Labour pledge.
While the report cautioned against making direct comparisons to last year’s analysis — which was based on possible outcomes rather than strategic pathways — gas use is estimated at the upper end of a previous range of predictions.
At the same time, the use of hydrogen, a molecule considered an important part of the move away from natural gas, is now only set to take part in one of the three pathways assessed by the grid operator.
Consumer demand for the fuel is set to reach only 223 terawatt-hours, compared to a previous scenario’s estimate of 335 terawatt-hours, the body said. The slower deployment is due to increasing confidence on the level of electrification in heating.
Other key numbers from the report:
- Battery electric vehicles on the road in Great Britain in 2023 reached 917,000; the report expects the uptake to proceed more slowly than in some of its previous scenarios
- In residential heat, actual installations of heat pumps last year were lower than in 2023’s most pessimistic emissions scenario, narrowing the range for future uptake rates
- New pathways see greater long-term growth in data centers than before, with their electricity demand seen over 20 terawatt-hours above previous estimates by 2050
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UK – Gas Reliance Set to Last Longer on Slow Hydrogen Uptake. source
